Market, Industry, and Competitive Analysis

Frameworks

What it is: Macro scan of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, Environmental forces.
Best for: Market entry, board risk framing, “what changed?” updates.
How to run: List factors → rate impact/uncertainty → pick top implications + triggers.
Outputs: Tailwind/headwind map; monitoring plan.
Watch-outs: Laundry list; no decision linkage.
Pro tips: Turn key factors into if/then playbooks + owners.
Best paired with: Scenario Planning; Risk Matrix.
Common misuses: Treating as research dump; ignoring uncertainty.

What it is: Industry structure via rivalry, entrants, substitutes, buyer power, supplier power.
Best for: Margin durability, pricing power, “is this a good business?”
How to run: Score each force → name drivers → choose levers to weaken forces.
Outputs: Attractiveness view + structural strategy options.
Watch-outs: Static snapshot; misses complements/ecosystems.
Pro tips: Add complements/platform rules as a 6th lens.
Best paired with: Competitive benchmarking; Value chain/cost analysis.
Common misuses: Confusing competitive intensity with differentiation problems.

What it is: Multiple plausible futures to build resilience/optionality.
Best for: Regulatory/tech uncertainty; long-cycle investments.
How to run: Pick 2–3 uncertainties → 3–4 scenarios → no-regret moves + signals.
Outputs: Options, early indicators, contingency triggers.
Watch-outs: Storytelling without budget/choices.
Pro tips: Tie scenarios to decision gates and spend toggles.
Best paired with: PESTLE; Three Horizons.
Common misuses: Too many scenarios; assuming equal probability.

What it is: Diagnoses Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity.
Best for: Leadership alignment; operating model adjustments.
How to run: Identify dominant VUCA → match response (vision/understanding/clarity/agility).
Outputs: Capability priorities; cadence changes.
Watch-outs: Used as a vibe; no operational follow-through.
Pro tips: Translate into sensing/decision/experiment loops.
Best paired with: Scenario Planning; OODA/Premortems.
Common misuses: Labeling everything VUCA; skipping root causes.

What it is: Primary/secondary research to reduce market/customer uncertainty.
Best for: Validation, pricing, positioning, sizing.
How to run: Decision → hypotheses → method → synthesize → decide.
Outputs: Insights, WTP, adoption barriers, segment sizing.
Watch-outs: Confirmation bias; leading questions.
Pro tips: Mix behavioral data + “why” interviews.
Best paired with: JTBD; Value Prop Canvas.
Common misuses: Big surveys without clear decision; ignoring sample bias.

What it is: Weighted scoring to compare markets (growth, margins, risk, rivalry, access).
Best for: Market entry/portfolio prioritization.
How to run: Choose criteria → weight → score → sensitivity test.
Outputs: Ranked markets + rationale.
Watch-outs: False precision; politics in weights.
Pro tips: Show best/base/worst deltas.
Best paired with: Five Forces; GE–McKinsey.
Common misuses: Copying criteria across markets; ignoring distribution access.

What it is: Current state vs target state gaps (performance/capabilities).
Best for: Transformation planning; capability building.
How to run: Define targets → baseline reality → gap drivers → initiatives + owners.
Outputs: Gap map; roadmap; resourcing.
Watch-outs: Targets ungrounded in constraints.
Pro tips: Break gaps into skills/process/tech/data.
Best paired with: OKRs; McKinsey 7S.
Common misuses: Treating symptoms as gaps; skipping root causes.

What it is: Prioritizes risks by likelihood x impact.
Best for: Governance; program/portfolio risk.
How to run: Enumerate → score → mitigate → assign triggers/owners.
Outputs: Top risks; mitigation plan.
Watch-outs: Subjective scoring; “unknown unknowns.”
Pro tips: Add detectability + time-to-impact.
Best paired with: Scenario Planning; Premortems.
Common misuses: Only listing risks, no mitigations; ignoring correlated risks.

What it is: Low-end/new-market entrants improve and displace incumbents.
Best for: Threat sensing; building separate growth engines.
How to run: Identify underserved/overserved → map trajectories → choose response.
Outputs: Defensive/offensive plays; incubator design.
Watch-outs: Calling every innovation “disruptive.”
Pro tips: Validate: starts with different value metric and constraints.
Best paired with: JTBD; Three Horizons.
Common misuses: Overreacting to sustaining innovation; ignoring incumbent advantages.

What it is: Portfolio: industry attractiveness vs business unit strength (multi-factor).
Best for: Resource allocation across units.
How to run: Pick ≤6 factors per axis → weight/score → plot → invest/hold/harvest.
Outputs: Portfolio posture; capital logic.
Watch-outs: Scoring politics; slow updates.
Pro tips: Publish sensitivities and assumptions.
Best paired with: SVA/EVA; Roadmapping.
Common misuses: Treating as objective truth; ignoring synergies.

What it is: Portfolio via market growth vs relative share (Stars/Cows/?/Dogs).
Best for: Quick portfolio sanity check.
How to run: Define market precisely → compute relative share → decide funding.
Outputs: Cash flow expectations; priorities.
Watch-outs: Market definition distortions; ignores unit economics.
Pro tips: Overlay gross margin + retention.
Best paired with: GE–McKinsey; Cohort economics.
Common misuses: Forcing all products into four boxes; using growth as “good” blindly.

What it is: NOPAT – (Invested Capital × WACC); economic profit.
Best for: Capital discipline; performance incentives.
How to run: Compute NOPAT/capital/WACC → track EVA drivers.
Outputs: Value creation metric; improvement levers.
Watch-outs: Accounting adjustments complexity.
Pro tips: Pair with ROIC vs WACC and capital turnover.
Best paired with: SVA; Balanced Scorecard.
Common misuses: Penalizing long-term investment; inconsistent capital definitions.